By Daniel Ogirisen
On the evening of 31 March 2015, many Nigerians sat by their televisions. They were waiting for the final results.
Then the sitting president picked up the phone.
Goodluck Jonathan called his challenger, Muhammadu Buhari. He conceded before the official announcement.
Many Nigerians wept that night. It was not because of who had won. It was because a country that had so often feared its elections had shown it could accept an outcome peacefully.
But that moment did not come out of nowhere. It was the end of a story that began in grief and suspicion, five years earlier.
How we got here
On 5 May 2010, President Umaru Yar'Adua died in Aso Rock. He had been ill for months.
Weeks before, the National Assembly had made his deputy, Goodluck Jonathan, acting president. Now a southerner held the nation's highest office. Many in the North were afraid.
The North had long believed that the presidency belonged to its turn. Its leaders feared that Yar'Adua's death had put that turn at risk.
They asked a question many Nigerians asked quietly. Would Jonathan hand power back to the North? Or would he follow his own ambition?
For a time, the North refused to back him. The country held its breath.
Newspaper reports at the time alleged something troubling. They said a circle around the First Lady, Turai Yar'Adua, resisted handing power to the vice president. Some ministers and close allies were said to be part of that circle.
The reports also alleged that the group kept blocking a full transfer. Even after Jonathan was installed, the question remained. Who was really in charge?
Then Jonathan made a move that changed everything.
He travelled to Ota to see former President Olusegun Obasanjo. Obasanjo was the elder statesman whose word still carried weight. He asked Jonathan what he wanted.
Jonathan's answer was simple. Let him finish Yar'Adua's term. Let him serve his own four years. Then let power return to the North.
That understanding became a gentleman's agreement among the powerful. It quieted the North. With Obasanjo as guarantor, the North backed Jonathan fully.
In 2011, he won with strong votes from the North. For a while, the agreement seemed to hold.
Then, as his term drew to a close, the rumours started.
Obasanjo later said Jonathan had told him he believed in a single six-year term. When Jonathan showed signs of seeking a second elected term, Obasanjo felt betrayed.
In 2013, Obasanjo wrote an open letter. He titled it "Before it is too late." He urged Jonathan not to run.
In February 2015, weeks before the election, Obasanjo left the PDP. It was the party he had helped found. He tore up his membership card in Abeokuta.
He then backed Buhari. Obasanjo has since said Buhari would not have won without his support.
These are Obasanjo's claims. Historians still debate them.
Some analysts recall something else. They say Jonathan's 2011 campaign was not as sharply organised as it could have been. They say the alliances and backers around him did much of the heavy lifting.
Whether he set some of those forces aside is still debated. So is whether that choice mattered in 2015.
What is clear is this. The politics of 2011 and 2015 were built on trust. That trust was tested.
The night of 31 March 2015
Buhari won the 2015 presidential election. An Associated Press count of the final results gave him more than 15.3 million votes. Jonathan received 12.9 million.
Buhari also carried Lagos, Nigeria's largest voting population. He won several southern states that had been seen as Jonathan's ground.
US President Barack Obama publicly praised Jonathan. He praised him for conceding and for upholding Nigeria's democratic principles.
Jonathan's concession was historic. But accounts of how he reached it differ.
In his book My Transition Hours, Jonathan wrote that he had been advised against conceding. Former Attorney-General Mohammed Adoke has disputed that. He says former Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and Osita Chidoka actually encouraged the concession.
Both sides have their own versions. Nigerians can weigh them and decide for themselves.
The lessons of 2015, and what they mean for 2027
1. Unwritten agreements are fragile.
The 2009 to 2010 arrangement that brought Jonathan to power was never written into law. It rested on a gentleman's agreement. It rested on the North's sense of its turn, and on Obasanjo's word.
When Jonathan's intentions became unclear, the agreement was questioned. The trust that held it together broke down.
Jonathan himself has said something telling. Without the formal title of acting president, his powers were limited. A letter needed for his position was not sent to the National Assembly in time.
For 2027, the lesson is simple. Power-sharing and party promises must be clear. They must be written. They must be respected.
No one should have to guess what happens after an election.
2. A guarantor can become an opponent.
Obasanjo stood behind Jonathan's transition. Later, he became one of Jonathan's fiercest critics.
Influential figures can change sides. They do so when their interests or principles change.
Voters and party members should not depend on one powerful name. Institutions last longer than personal promises. So do party discipline and public accountability.
3. Incumbency is an advantage, not a guarantee.
Jonathan was a sitting president. He had the resources of the state behind him. He still lost.
The presidency can be lost as well as won.
Any incumbent in 2027 must understand this. Office brings a duty to deliver results that people can see and feel.
Any challenger must understand this too. A sitting government can still be defeated at the ballot box.
4. Money and machinery matter, but groundwork decides.
Jonathan had significant resources in 2015. Those resources alone did not win the election.
Campaigns need more than money. They need organised structures in every ward and local government. They need trusted messengers, clear messages, and tight logistics on election day.
A party that neglects grassroots work can be surprised by its own voters. This is true even when it is well funded.
5. Regional identity does not decide votes.
Before 2015, many people assumed a candidate's home region would deliver most of its votes. Buhari proved that assumption wrong. He won several southern states and carried Lagos.
Voters in 2027 will likely judge candidates differently. They will look at security, the economy, and jobs. They will ask whether their concerns are heard.
They will not judge only by where a candidate was born.
6. Voters respond to their present needs and their fears.
After 2015, many Nigerians said Jonathan had failed to provide security. The North-East was especially affected. Insecurity had displaced many families.
The lesson is clear. A government's record on everyday problems matters most. Insecurity, hunger, unemployment, and the cost of living weigh heavily. They weigh more than any party's history.
Candidates in 2027 must show how they will solve these problems. Voters will compare their plans and records.
7. A peaceful concession is a national treasure.
Jonathan's call to Buhari became a benchmark. It set a standard for peaceful transfers of power in Nigeria.
Even this moment is told differently. Those involved describe it in different ways.
Both accounts show something human. The decision was not easy. The people around a leader shape the choices he makes.
In 2027, whatever the outcome, every candidate will be judged. So will every party and adviser. They will be judged by how they respond to defeat.
8. Every citizen is a stakeholder.
The 2015 outcome was shaped by millions of ordinary Nigerians. They registered. They voted. They watched the count.
Democracy depends on participation. Elections are not decided only in Abuja.
They are decided in every polling unit in the country. They are decided one vote at a time.
The players, then and now
2015: Goodluck Jonathan (PDP, incumbent). Muhammadu Buhari (APC, challenger). Olusegun Obasanjo (former president who left the PDP and backed Buhari). Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and Osita Chidoka (named in accounts of who urged the concession).
2027: Bola Tinubu (APC, incumbent president, running with Kashim Shettima). Atiku Abubakar (ADC, running with Rotimi Amaechi). Peter Obi (NDC, running with Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso). Donald Duke (PRP).
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) manages the process. The presidential election is scheduled for 16 January 2027.
Nigeria's democracy belongs to its people. Politicians come and go. The lessons of 2015 stay with us.
The next leader will be chosen by millions of ordinary Nigerians. They will vote at the polls, in markets, in schools, and in villages.
So let us register. Let us protect our votes. Let us report any irregularity through lawful channels.
Let us listen carefully to every candidate. Let us question them respectfully. Let us hold them to their promises.
When the final result is announced, it may please us or it may not. Either way, let us remember the night in 2015. A phone call showed the world what Nigeria could be.
Share this with someone who remembers 2015.
Share it with someone who will vote for the first time in 2027.
Have you gotten your voter registration identity card from INEC?
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